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📢 Upcoming Seminar | Statistics & Public Health in Africa

#SSACAB | #Scienceforafricafoundation | #Wellcometrust | #PublicHealth | #Statistics | #Epidemiology | #BayesianStatistics | #HealthDataScience | #HIVResearch | #MachineLearning | #AfricaResearch | #UNIMA

Don’t miss this insightful seminar featuring Dr Geoffrey Singini, who will present impactful research at the intersection of statistics, epidemiology, and public health in Africa.

    🏛️ University of Malawi (UNIMA)
    🧠 Topic: Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models for Multivariate Epidemic Time Series
    📅 Date: 26 May 2026

Key focus areas:

    🔹 Non-linear regime-switching models for infectious disease forecasting by extending hidden Markov models
    🔹 Models the influence of the two previous states on transition probabilities and embedding autoregressive dynamics within these latent regimes.
    🔹 Applies to HIV-related mortality and viral load monitoring EMR data to model identified distinct operational regimes in the healthcare system

💡 Why this matters:

Accurate epidemic forecasting models are critical for strengthening healthcare systems, improving preparedness, and supporting timely interventions. By identifying hidden operational regimes in healthcare data, this research can help policymakers and health practitioners better allocate resources, monitor HIV outcomes, and respond proactively to changing disease dynamics.